{"id":1071,"date":"2008-04-22T21:44:27","date_gmt":"2008-04-22T12:44:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/arita.com\/ar\/?p=1071"},"modified":"2015-01-04T18:20:10","modified_gmt":"2015-01-04T09:20:10","slug":"%e3%83%96%e3%83%a9%e3%83%83%e3%82%af%e3%82%b9%e3%83%af%e3%83%b3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/arita.com\/ar\/?p=1071","title":{"rendered":"\u30d6\u30e9\u30c3\u30af\u30b9\u30ef\u30f3"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"theContentWrap-ccc\"><p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.co.jp\/exec\/obidos\/ASIN\/1400063515\/areconote-22\/ref=nosim\/\" name=\"amazletlink\" target=\"_blank\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/ecx.images-amazon.com\/images\/I\/41cOuN5EclL._SL160_.jpg\" alt=\"The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable\" style=\"border: none;\" align=\"left\" hspace=\"5\" \/><\/a>\u3053\u3053\u6570\u65e5\u3001N.Nicholas Taleb\u306e\u3000The Black Swan  \u306b\u5d4c\u3063\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u300230\u5e74\u3076\u308a\u306b\u6570\u5b66\u306e\u672c\u3092\u5f15\u3063\u5f35\u308a\u51fa\u3057\u3066\u53c2\u7167\u3057\u306a\u304c\u3089\u8caa\u308a\u8aad\u307f\u3001\u77e5\u7684\u8208\u596e\u72b6\u614b\u306e\u6700\u4e2d\u3002\u307e\u3060\u8aad\u307f\u7d42\u3048\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u306e\u3067\u8aad\u5f8c\u611f\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u3001\u3044\u308f\u3070\u66f8\u8a55\u306e\u4e88\u544a\u7de8\u3002\u3000<!--more-->\u3000<br clear=\"all\" \/><\/p>\n<p>\u30fb\u30fb\u30fb\u30fb\u30fb\u30fb\u30fb\u30fb\u30fb\u30fb<br \/>\n\u3082\u3068\u306f\u3068\u3044\u3048\u3070\u3001\u30bf\u30ec\u30d6\u306e\u300c\u307e\u3050\u308c\u300d\uff08\u30c0\u30a4\u30e4\u30e2\u30f3\u30c9\u793e\u30002008.1.31\uff09\u3092\u8aad\u3093\u3060\u306e\u304c\u304d\u3063\u304b\u3051\u3002\u305d\u306e\u672c\u306e\u4e2d\u306b\u8457\u8005\u306e\u300c\u30d6\u30e9\u30c3\u30af\u30b9\u30ef\u30f3\u300d\u3082\u73fe\u5728\u7ffb\u8a33\u6e96\u5099\u4e2d\u3068\u306e\u3053\u3068\u3060\u3063\u305f\u306e\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u5f85\u3061\u304d\u308c\u305a\u306b\u539f\u66f8\u3092\u5165\u624b\u3002\u5148\u9031\u304b\u3089\u8aad\u307f\u59cb\u3081\u307e\u3057\u305f\u304c\u3001\u82f1\u8a9e\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3092\u5fd8\u308c\u308b\u304f\u3089\u3044\u9762\u767d\u3044\uff08\u308f\u304b\u3089\u306a\u3044\u5358\u8a9e\u306f\u98db\u3070\u3057\u3066\u8aad\u3080\u306e\u3067\u53d6\u308a\u9055\u3048\u591a\u3005\u3042\u308a\uff09\u3002\u307e\u3041\u597d\u307f\u306b\u306f\u500b\u4eba\u5dee\u304c\u3042\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u305d\u3093\u306a\u3082\u306e\u30b9\u30ab\u3060\u3068\u3044\u3046\u4eba\u304c\u3044\u3066\u3082\u79c1\u306f\u9810\u304b\u308a\u77e5\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u300c\u307e\u3050\u308c\u300d\u306f\u3001\u5b9f\u529b\u3068\u307e\u3050\u308c\u3068\u306e\u5dee\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u8ad6\u3058\u305f\u3082\u306e\u3002\u76ee\u304b\u3089\u9c57\u306e\u8a71\u3067\u6e80\u8f09\u3067\u3059\u3002\u3053\u3061\u3089\u3082\u5f8c\u65e5\u7d39\u4ecb\u3059\u308b\u4e88\u5b9a?\u306a\u306e\u3067\u671f\u5f85\u305b\u305a\u304a\u5f85\u3061\u4e0b\u3055\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3055\u3066\u3001\u300cThe Black Swan\u300d\u306e\u65b9\u306f\u3001\u300c\u307e\u3050\u308c\u300d\u3067\u57a3\u9593\u898b\u305b\u305f\u30d6\u30e9\u30c3\u30af\u30b9\u30ef\u30f3\u3068\u3044\u3046\u6982\u5ff5\u3092\u5b9a\u7fa9\u3057\u3001\u305d\u308c\u3092\u7d71\u8a08\u5b66\u306e\u57fa\u790e\u304b\u3089\u89e3\u8aac\u3057\u305f\u3082\u306e\u3002\u5f93\u6765\u306e\u793e\u4f1a\u79d1\u5b66\u306f\u4e8b\u8c61\u306e\u767a\u751f\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u3001\u30ac\u30a6\u30b9\u5206\u5e03\u3064\u307e\u308a\u6b63\u898f\u5206\u5e03\u3092\u524d\u63d0\u306b\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u6d41\u884c\u308a\u306e\u91d1\u878d\u5de5\u5b66\u306f\u305d\u306e\u6700\u305f\u308b\u3082\u306e\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u305d\u306e\u91d1\u878d\u5de5\u5b66\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u79c1\u306f\u306a\u3093\u3068\u3082\u30b9\u30c3\u30ad\u30ea\u3057\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002\u30ce\u30fc\u30d9\u30eb\u8cde\u5b66\u8005\u3092\u64c1\u3057\u305fLTCM\u304c\u7834\u7dbb\u3057\u305f\u6642\u3001\u5c02\u9580\u5bb6\u306f\u3069\u3046\u8aac\u660e\u3057\u305f\u306e\u304b\u3002\u5f15\u304d\u91d1\u3068\u306a\u3063\u305f\u30ed\u30b7\u30a2\u5371\u6a5f\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u306f\u901a\u5e38\u8d77\u3053\u308a\u3048\u306a\u3044\u3082\u306e\u3067\u3001\u8d77\u3053\u308b\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3082\u5929\u6587\u5b66\u7684\u306b\u5fae\u5c0f\u306a\u78ba\u7387\u3067\u3057\u304b\u306a\u3044\u3068\u8a00\u3044\u8a33\u3057\u3066\u8cac\u4efb\u56de\u907f\u3002\u30bf\u30ec\u30d6\u66f0\u304f\u3001\u305d\u308c\u306f\u4e8b\u8c61\u306e\u751f\u6210\u3092\u30ac\u30a6\u30b9\u5206\u5e03\u3067\u8003\u3048\u308b\u304b\u3089\u3060\u3068\u559d\u7834\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u79c1\u3082\u305d\u3046\u601d\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u305d\u306e\u6642\u306e\u8cac\u4efb\u8005\u3067\u3042\u308b\u30e1\u30ea\u30a6\u30a7\u30b6\u30fc\u306f\u4eca\u56de\u306e\u30b5\u30d6\u30d7\u30e9\u30a4\u30e0\u3067\u3082\u5927\u640d\u3053\u3044\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u306e\u3067\u3001\u4f55\u3068\u304b\u306f\u6b7b\u306c\u307e\u3067\u76f4\u3089\u306a\u3044\u30fb\u30fb\u30fb\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u3053\u6570\u5341\u5e74\u306e\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u3092\u307f\u308c\u3070\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u5de5\u5b66\u3067\u8aac\u660e\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u306e\u3067\u304d\u306a\u3044\u3001\u3064\u307e\u308a\u30ac\u30a6\u30b9\u5206\u5e03\u3067\u898f\u5b9a\u3055\u308c\u308b\u4e8b\u8c61\u3067\u306f\u8aac\u660e\u3067\u304d\u306a\u3044\u3053\u3068\u304c\u7d50\u69cb\u305f\u304f\u3055\u3093\u8d77\u304d\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u30021987\u5e74\u306e\u30d6\u30e9\u30c3\u30af\u30de\u30f3\u30c7\u30fc\u7136\u308a\u30011990\u5e74\u306e\u65e5\u672c\u306e\u30d0\u30d6\u30eb\u5d29\u58ca\u30011997\u5e74\u306e\u30a2\u30b8\u30a2\u5371\u6a5f\u30011998\u5e74\u306e\u30ed\u30b7\u30a2\u5371\u6a5f\u304b\u3089LTCM\u7834\u7dbb\u3001\u305d\u3057\u3066911\u3002\u307b\u3068\u3093\u3069\u8d77\u3053\u3089\u306a\u3044\u306f\u305a\u306e\u51fa\u6765\u4e8b\u304c\u306a\u305c\u983b\u7e41\u306b\u8d77\u304d\u308b\u306e\u304b\u3002\u8981\u3059\u308b\u306b\u3001\u4eba\u9593\u306e\u6b32\u3084\u6050\u6016\u3001\u306f\u305f\u307e\u305f\u4eba\u7a2e\u9593\u306e\u95d8\u4e89\u304c\u7d61\u3093\u3067\u304f\u308b\u3068\u3001\u30ac\u30a6\u30b9\u5206\u5e03\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u5e73\u5747\u3068\u504f\u5dee\u3067\u307f\u308b\u4e16\u754c\u89b3\u3067\u306f\u5230\u5e95\u592a\u5200\u6253\u3061\u3067\u304d\u306a\u3044\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\u306e\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u304b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u79c1\u81ea\u8eab\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u5de5\u5b66\u306e\u57fa\u790e\u306e\u8106\u5f31\u6027\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306f\u5e38\u65e5\u9803\u4e0d\u4fe1\u611f\u3092\u6301\u3063\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3057\u305f\u306e\u3067\u3001\u30bf\u30ec\u30d6\u306e\u8a00\u3044\u5206\u306b\u306f\u305d\u3046\u3060\u305d\u3046\u3060\u3068\u62cd\u624b\u559d\u91c7\u3002\u4eca\u307e\u3067\u3059\u3063\u304d\u308a\u3057\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u70b9\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u591a\u3005\u308f\u304b\u3063\u3066\u304d\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u30e9\u30c3\u30ad\u30fc\u3002\u5b66\u751f\u6642\u4ee3\u304b\u3089\u6570\u3048\u3066\u7d0430\u5e74\u6765\u306e\u5bbf\u984c\u304c\u89e3\u3051\u305d\u3046\u306a\u611f\u3058\u306b\u3001\u3053\u3053\u6570\u65e5\u8208\u596e\u72b6\u614b\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6249\u306b\u300c\u30de\u30f3\u30c7\u30eb\u30d6\u30ed\u3078\u300d\u3068\u306e\u8b1d\u8f9e\u304c\u3042\u308b\u306e\u3092\u898b\u3066\u3001\u6700\u521d\u3042\u308c\u3063\u3068\u601d\u3044\u307e\u3057\u305f\u304c\u3001\u8aad\u307f\u9032\u3081\u3066\u4e86\u89e3\u3002\u30bf\u30ec\u30d6\u3055\u3093\u306f\u30de\u30f3\u30c7\u30eb\u30d6\u30ed\u306e\u30d5\u30e9\u30af\u30bf\u30eb\u306b\u30ac\u30a6\u30b9\u5206\u5e03\u306b\u4ee3\u308f\u308b\u3082\u306e\u3092\u898b\u3044\u51fa\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u7d9a\u304d\u306f\u8aad\u307f\u7d42\u3048\u3066\u304b\u3089\uff08\u3044\u3064\u306e\u3053\u3068\u3084\u3089\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u3053\u3053\u6570\u65e5\u3001N.Nicholas Taleb\u306e\u3000The Black Swan \u306b\u5d4c\u3063\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u300230\u5e74\u3076\u308a\u306b\u6570\u5b66\u306e\u672c\u3092\u5f15\u3063\u5f35\u308a\u51fa\u3057\u3066\u53c2\u7167\u3057\u306a\u304c\u3089\u8caa\u308a\u8aad\u307f\u3001\u77e5\u7684\u8208\u596e\u72b6\u614b\u306e\u6700\u4e2d\u3002\u307e\u3060\u8aad\u307f\u7d42\u3048\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u306e\u3067\u8aad\u5f8c\u611f\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\u3001\u3044\u308f\u3070\u66f8\u8a55\u306e\u4e88\u544a\u7de8\u3002\u3000<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":11604,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1071","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-media-book-dvd-movie"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/arita.com\/ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1071","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/arita.com\/ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/arita.com\/ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arita.com\/ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arita.com\/ar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1071"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/arita.com\/ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1071\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11605,"href":"https:\/\/arita.com\/ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1071\/revisions\/11605"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arita.com\/ar\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/11604"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/arita.com\/ar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1071"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arita.com\/ar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1071"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/arita.com\/ar\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1071"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}